The world realizes that Trump means what he says. The letter early on the morning of January 19 to Norwegian Prime Minister Störe reveals the president’s mental health. A peace prize that brings war? A grandiose self-image that weighs heavily if you want to understand American politics.
How to sketch here.
Trump in Truth Social January 16, 2026: “Starting February 1, 2026, all of the above countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Great Britain, the Netherlands and Finland) will pay a 10% tariff on all goods shipped to the United States. On June 1, 2026, the tariffs will increase to 25% … until a complete and total purchase of Greenland is completed.” A logical pressure on Denmark But why tariffs on the seven other countries? Because they contribute to strengthening Greenland’s defense, in addition to the “dog sleds.”
The 1951 agreement gives the US the right to establish bases in Greenland. Today, only one remains, Thule/Pituffik Space Base – with personnel reduced from a peak of 10,000 to 150.
Dog sleds?
Arguments for buying/taking over Greenland ”Basically, their defense is two dog sleds. You know that? You know what their defense is? Two dog sleds.” .
Trump believes that Denmark’s weak defenses on the island cannot withstand the Russians and Chinese. At the same time, he is flying in the roof when a few dozen NATO soldiers are flown in to prepare for the Arctic Endurance exercise . To act as a tripwire if Trump decides to invade the island. Together with about a hundred desk officers at the Joint Arctic command in Nuuk, an elite force that Trump calls two dog sleds. Icebreaker HDMS Knud Rasmussen is one of the ships that protects Greenlandic waters.
Checkmate?
Greenland is not for sale. A clear message is being given from both Copenhagen and Nuuk, the capital with half of Greenland’s population. Then Trump is left with an occupation.
The question is when?
- An attack immediately, when the few military forces from European EU countries are not much of a defense? Presumably in April-May, after the winter storms and the ice breaks up in the fjords. Roads are largely absent, so local transport must be by sea or helicopter.
- Or the second half of 2026 before the House of Representatives and perhaps the Senate are controlled by the Democrats. Opinion polls indicate a Democratic victory in the mid-term elections in November. The same month, winter storms and icing begin. This suggests an American offensive at the end of the summer. Which then will count but significantly stronger defense.
80% of Greenland is covered by ice, the rest is tundra cut by fjords. There are no roads, except for a few stubs near the three international airports of Nuuk, Kangerlussuaq and Narsarsuaq.
If transport planes from the US Air Force land, the surprise attack could paralyze the island in a few hours. Primarily Nuuk Airport and capture Greenland’s government, parliament and administration there. The port of Nuuk is mostly ice-free and facilitates military logistics.
Learn from Ukraine
Kangerlussua Airport, about thirty kilometers north of Nuuk, is a former US base, which until now was the island’s busiest.
Narsarsuaq Airport is also the former US base, 500 km south, near the southern tip of the island. Close to deposits of rare earth metals, which Trump has a keen eye for. The fjord landscape attracted the Vikings, today with a number of sheep farmers on the pastures.
The fjord landscape around the new Quaqortoq airport , which replaces Narsarsuaq, is suitable for an American naval base. In that case, strategically placed to keep an eye on the Russian navy in the Norwegian Sea. Perhaps in the long term as protection for the Northwest Passage, the day the greenhouse effect has melted the ice sheet sufficiently north of Canada.
These days, Greenland is being filled with NATO troops, as Trump called for – and now fears. Some explosive devices on the runways and US planes cannot land. In the same way as when some Ukrainian platoons prevented Russian air landings at Kiev airport in 2022.
Exit NATO
The tundra doesn’t offer much protection from drone swarms. The surprise coup could be a fiasco for Trump as time goes on.
On paper, Trump’s attackers are superior. But with the storms raging across an unpopulated and roadless tundra, victory is just as certain.
Air-refueled F-16s and JAS Gripens that NATO is stationing in Iceland can fight for air supremacy. Then, if not sooner, transatlantic NATO will die on its own. In any case, an effective dystopia in the media aimed at members of Congress. Even worse, they threaten NATO with its collapse as trust in the US is destroyed.
”An American military action against Greenland would be a total disaster and would mean the end of NATO,” says EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius. Maybe still on paper, but like a lame duck.
Free passage for Putin in the Atlantic
If NATO breaks up, the GIUK line is threatened as a gatekeeper against Russian submarines and surface ships that want to get out into the Atlantic. GIUK, actually GIUKN (Greenland – Iceland – UK and Norway) is a network of sensors, intelligence and military cooperation.
The purpose is to prevent Soviet submarines from venturing into the Atlantic and launching nuclear missiles in ambush near Western Europe and America, as well as to cut off the transport of troops and military equipment across the sea.
NATO countries share real-time intelligence from radar and signals intelligence, satellites and aerial surveillance. The corks will be pulled from the champagne bottles in the Kremlin if the US leaves the NATO collective
Third round
The leaders of Denmark and Greenland should learn from Putin, pretend to negotiate but don’t sign any papers. In the meantime, back up the EU countries’ diplomats with lobbyists, the press and social media sniping.
The Danes should tickle Trump’s ego with generous promises that US companies will be allowed to exploit the island’s mineral deposits without being hindered by strict environmental requirements. Preferably with a glance at the Ukraine–United States Mineral Resources Agreement , written for joint extraction of rare earth metals, oil and gas. But no signed agreement, Europe needs the minerals better.
It’s true that Greenland’s mines are unlikely to be profitable during Trump’s lifetime. But American mining giants are easing their pockets and filling Trump’s campaign coffers. As with the oil from Venezuela.
These negotiations will conveniently crash in the fall of 2026. Greenland will then be better equipped militarily, the autumn storms will cool the tundra, and the mid-term elections will be over. Hopefully with a Democratic majority on Capitol Hill.
/ By Ingemar Lindmark